Why Iran Wants The Bomb (And How They Are Going To Get it)
Amir Taheri (Benador Associates) has written an excellent piece relating to why Iran so greatly desires a nuclear weapon. I've given the issue of Iran's nuclear ambitions and considerable amount of thought lately and have come to the conclusion that War with Iran will occur before the current sitting President of the United States leaves office. While considering his article I've made the following deductions.
According to this analysis, spelled out in commentaries by Ahmadinejad's strategic guru, Hassan Abassi, known as the "Dr Kissinger of Islam", President George W Bush is an aberration, an exception to a rule under which all American presidents since Truman, when faced with serious setbacks abroad, have "run away". Iran's current strategy, therefore, is to wait Bush out. And that, by "divine coincidence", corresponds to the time Iran needs to develop its nuclear arsenal, thus matching the only advantage that the infidel enjoys.
The Iranians may have a valid point in that the next President of the United States may not have the stomach for conflict, and I fully expect the "Democratic" candidate to run on an anti-war platform. Surely the Israeli's have come to this conclusion as well and if they are going to make a pre-emptive strike on Iran's facilities the time to do so would be before the elections. If the current President or a Republican candidate is in the White House the Israeli's will have the benefit of American backing when Iran (and possibly the Iranian puppets of Lebanon and Syria) launch the inevitable counter attack. If a "Democrat" is elected the Israeli's stand the chance of being abandoned in favor of public opinion.
While waiting Bush out, the Islamic Republic is intent on doing all it can to consolidate its gains in the region. Regime changes in Kabul and Baghdad have altered the status quo in the Middle East. While Bush is determined to create a Middle East that is democratic and pro-Western, Ahmadinejad is equally determined that the region should remain Islamic but pro-Iranian. Iran is now the strongest presence in Afghanistan and Iraq, after the US. It has turned Syria and Lebanon into its outer defences, which means that, for the first time since the 7th century, Iran is militarily present on the coast of the Mediterranean. In a massive political jamboree in Teheran last week, Ahmadinejad also assumed control of the "Jerusalem Cause", which includes annihilating Israel "in one storm", while launching a take-over bid for the cash-starved Hamas government in the West Bank and Gaza.
This is a very true and much overlooked fact by the main stream media, Iran is the power in the Gulf region and has every intent on consolidating that strength. Particularly important is Iran's move to provide funding and materials to the Islamist organizations in the Palestinian Occupied Territories in place of the funding that the US and EU are withholding from Hamas. It wont be long and Iran will have a controlling interest in Lebanon, Syria and The Occupied Territories as well as Hamas, Hizbollah, Islamic Jihad and any number of other groups. Iran also has a massive influence among the militant Shia organizations of Iraq. Al-Sadr is a simple tool, the Mahdi Army is more than likely heavily infiltrated by Iranian Special Forces. I suspect many of the Shia Islamist groups in Iraq are primarliy made up of (or led by and funded by) Iranian Special Forces and Intelligence Services.
I expect an escalation of conflict in the region would go something like this:
1) Israel launches a pre-emptive strike on Irans nuclear enrichment facilities out of sheer desperation.
2) The Iranian's launch a massive counter attack via Shahab Missles topped with Bio and Chemical agents. They subsequently order Lebanon and Syria into the attack as well as Hizbollah, Islamic Jihad, Hamas, Fatah and all other Islamic groups they can call to muster. They also activate sleeper cells in the West and launch terror attacks against the civilian population with high losses.
3) While Israel is thus engaged and before the US Navy and Air Force have time to respond they launch a massive ground attack into Southern Iraq to claim the Iraqi Oil fields and deny the West access to those reserves. This drives crude over $150 USD per barrel world wide and forces the US, Great Britian and thier allies to declare a state of emergency and ration fuel for Military use only. The subsequent economic backlash brings the worlds free markets to thier knees.
4) The Western World at large screams in indignation but does not act militarily (as usual) while leaving the US, Great Britian and the few allies already in the Region to blunt the blow and attempt a counter attack.
5) The Allied Air Forces and US navy counter attack by landing a US Marine Division on the Israeli coast to prevent them being overrun and slaughtered by thier neighbors.
6) A US Marine Division is sent to occupy Bandar Abbas and the Straights of Hormuze.
6) Within 24 hours a massive strategic bombardment is underway against Irans nuclear, military and internal infrastructure.
7) Within 72 hours Irans power, communications and transportation infrastructures are shattered. The invading force in Southern Iraq is decimated from the air via B-52 strikes and assualt from US Navy Carrier Battle Groups in the area. Any identifiable Iranian Army units are destroyed from the air as well.
8) Within a week the destruction of Irans military resources is all but complete and although Israeli losses are staggering the Israeli government has survived. The US Marine units there are supported via US Army and they assume a defensive posture with thier neighbors while eradicating Palestinian militant factions that still survive.
The scenario above is very ugly and very possible in one form or another, the spectre of regional conflict could very well raise it's ugly head in the very near future. These are interesting times in which we live indeed. While my hypothesis above tells some of the story it doesnt do justice to the well thought out piece by Amir. I encourage you to visit the Benador Associates site and review his article in it's entirety.
As always, comments and questions are welcome.